The Perils of Predictions: Future of Physical Media

SciBling Walt Crawford indulges himself in some prognosticating about the (non)demise of various physical means of delivering information: music, films, magazine, newspapers and books. He takes a cautious, conservative tack there, for the most part. I am supposed to be the wide-eyed digi-evangelists around here, but I was nodding along and, surprising to me, agreeing with much of what he wrote.
But I’d like to follow-up on this with some additional caveats and thoughts of my own. You may have to read Walt’s post first for the context, as this will be a direct riff off of him.
Regarded as some kind of “visionary” I often get asked, including in media interviews, to give these kinds of predictions, i.e., will medium A be “dead” in X years. I try to weasel out of those questions, and for a good reason.
We tend to laugh at soothsayers who got all their predictions wrong: the Nostradamuses and similar fakes. But we should remember that many people, including numerous science fiction writers, made many correct predictions. Where they tend to get it wrong is in assigning the exact dates – and then we laugh at them for that instead of admiring their power of vision.
So, when I get asked those prediction questions, I tend to answer in a different form. For instance, I may try to articulate ‘order’ instead of ‘timing’ and say something like: phase A will be followed by phase B will be followed by phase C, etc. This eliminates the need to give any kinds of numbers – in years – as to when any of those phases will happen. I am, just like everyone else, notoriously bad at predicting the rates of change, but the order of changes (and the identity of those changes) is easier to get right.
If pressed further, I may say that phase A will happen ‘pretty soon’ (which is ambigious on purpose and can mean anything between 10 months and 10 years), phase B we’ll see within our lifetimes (again purposefully ambiguous – anywhere between 10 and 100 years) and phase C will happen in the far future (even more ambiguos – may mean anything between 25 years and a 1000 years). That’s about as much precision as I am willing to offer.
So, I think that Walt unnecessarily hampered himself by imposing a strict number on his predictions. It is going to be much easier to measure if he was right about timing and thus ignore if he was right about substance.
Also, Walt’s choice of 5 years is extremely short. It is very easy to say that ‘nothing much will change in 5 years’ because that statement is basically correct. Sure, five years is incredibly long when one thinks about technological innovation and the rate of technological change – those things happen much faster. But on the other hand, social change does not happen that fast. And Walt is not talking about new inventions that will emerge on the market and become popular, but about disappearance of existing technologies, which is the domain of societal change, not technological.
First consideration: when a new technology in the media comes into the market and becomes popular, it first sweeps the tech-savvy, highly educated folks in big cities in the developed world. If you live in Tokyo, Amsterdam, San Francisco or London, you will be surrounded by such people and will tend to think that “everyone is now using this technology”. This ignores billions of people in the rural areas of developed countries as well as entire developing/undeveloped countries. I have a nagging feeling that Walt will agree with me on this point.
Second consideration: emergence of new and vanishing of old technologies also depends on how well it tacks onto the existing infrastructure and if the country has that infrastructure. For example, cell phone technology does not tack onto the landline phone network. In developed countries, the landline phone companies will try to slow down the process in order to save the utility of the network they are operating, thus they will start operating cell phone business but in a very customer-unfriendly and expensive manner. On the other hand, in a developing country with no landline phone infrastructure, the country can completely leap over that technology and jump straight into building (if they have money) the cell-phone infrastructure with no hindrance from any government-connected corporations. Thus, the landline phone technology will “die” faster in a country in which it was never really strong (e.g., the entire continent of Africa) than in developed countries in which people are used to landlines (and want to keep doing what they always did) and there are business forces that try to slow down the change.
Before you all go off-topic dissecting the above example, the take-home point of the paragraph was this: adoption of new and disappearance of old technology is a) going to occur at different rates in different geographies and b) will be contingent on a lot of factors, including local politics, business, finances, culture and, yes, climate. Some technologies are better adapted than others to extreme heat, cold, humidity or dust. Also, how much electricity does your gizmo require? Can you use it with a hand-crank or a couple of hamsters in running-wheels or does it require a stable and reliable electrical grid?
Third consideration: people differ in regard to adopting new technologies. Some people hungrily go after every new shiny thing, some forever cling to the ways they always used to do things (it’s surprising how many professional journalists and professional scientists – people one expects to be the most novelty-seeking, adventurous and flexible – are in this group!), and most are somewhere in-between, waiting to see what new technologies become indispensable (not just fads) before starting to use them (heck, it took me years before I got my first cell phone).
Even if a new technology completely sweeps the market, there will always be traditionalists, collectors and fans of the old tech. I do not see LPs or ham-radios (or even slide-rules or moleskins) ever going away: too many people just love those things, collect them, trade them, organize conferences about them, write academic papers about them, etc. In other words, even if most of the population in a given geography switches to a new technology, that technology cannot be pronounced dead as long as there are fan-clubs still using it.
Fourth consideration: really a variation of the Third. Producers of the technology, in face of societal changes in the use of that technology, adapt to a new niche. Horse breeding is still a multi-billion dollar business. If anything, horses are better and more expensive than ever in history. But the use of that technology is completely different. Nobody in the developed world (yes, go visit an undeveloped country and go to the rural areas – watch horses, or oxen or mules, plough the fields) is using horses for day-to-day transportation or agricultural work. Horses are now used by a different set of users for sport and leisure. While the technology called horses-as-transportation is dead, the technology horses is not. The technology has changed its use – hobby, rather than a need. Producers of that technology adapt to the new market.
So, yes, I agree with Walt that music CDs are not going to disappear in 5 years (how about in 100 years?). Their market share will diminish and it may become more of a hobby, but they will be there (more in some places than others, of course).
I agree with Walt that DVDs will still be around in 5 years, though I think Blue-Ray will go the way of Betamax: essentially dead.
And while some news-magazines like TIME and Newsweek will likely die, glossy photo-magazines probably will not, at least not very soon (i.e., not in 5 years):

The future (or what little is left of it) of print journalism is photojournalism. Text is already all online (and so are the audio and video clips). Long after the newspapers stop printing news on cheap paper, the glossy magazines dependent on high quality photography will keep getting printed: bridal gowns, real estate, sport, fishing and hunting magazines will thrive for quite a bit longer – they are selling glamour that Kindle and laptops are still incapable of reproducing as well as the dead-tree technology can. For a little while longer…

Also, our favourite beach/pool/airplane magazines, like The NewYorker, Atlantic and Harpers (high-quality long-form writing, not quite pleasant to read on an iPhone or laptop yet), still have a long way to go before dying….
Scientific journals will not die, but many will entirely move online and quit printing a dead-tree version (which will allow for experimentation on the format of the scientific paper).
Books: the Kindle is soooooo much an early prototype of the technology, we have a long way to go before we have something that new generations will adopt as ‘their’ technology (not even to mention the business aspects) . Our collective love of physical books is too strong and an entire generational shift will have to happen before the books die. Not to mention how much time it will need to digitize all the books. But once the new technology matures, it will, of course, change the way we read books, in a MacLuhanesque way.
As for newspapers, I have written about it a lot, and stated that metros will die, but hyper-local and super-global newspapers will survive – at least longer than 5 years – but will mostly be online anyway (you can print your copy – there is a “Print” button on your browser).
Now, you take a stab at predictions!

Open Access to Health Information (video)

Ginny Barbour, Part 3: PLoS Medicine Open Access to Health Information from PLoS on Vimeo.

Clock Quotes

The reason a man must awaken is because it is dangerous to sleep, as man’s present life proves.
– Vernon Howard

Project Natal – Milo Demo (video) – the future of interaction with the screen

Gaming is first – but imagine the uses for this kind of technology in education or science:

PLoS ONE Blog Pick of the Month

It is time to announce the July winner. To see who won this time, you’ll have to go here.

Today’s carnivals

Festival of The Trees: Edition #38 is up on Trees, Plants and more

Clock Quotes

When action grows unprofitable, gather information; when information grows unprofitable, sleep.
– Ursula K. Le Guin

The Best of July

I posted 173 (this is 174th) posts in July.
As I was traveling the first half of the month, I scheduled a bunch of quotes and also a bunch of re-posts of the most basic and informative posts about chronobiology for your summer education 😉
The first week of July, I was in Lindau, Germany, at the Nobel conference. I blogged about some talks and some more talks and about the blogger meetup, I took some pictures of the Lindau island, and did a series of 1-minute video interviews with the participants, including Matthew Siebert, Anna-Maria Huber, Fenja Schoepke, Jan Wedekind, Ghada Al-Kadamany and Jennifer Murphy.
On the last day, we went on a boat trip to the island of Mainau (and back), where animals are so tame. After the panel on Climate Change we wandered around the island and visited the butterfly house and the Linnaeus’ floral clock.
Then I went to Belgrade, Serbia, where I gave TV and radio interviews, took some pictures, gave two lectures about Open Access, PLoS, Science 2.0 and science blogging at the University Library and at the Medical School, and attended not one, not two, but three school reunions! But perhaps the most exciting thing is that I got to see and photograph the recently discovered mammoth fossil.
As a result of the Lindau conference, I got a guest post by Lars Fischer – Nobel laureates on being young and the future of science – and, in turn, he got to interview me for an article. I was also interviewed by Next Generation Science and again for an article about Twitter in science.
The Who are you, dear readers? post brought in more than 50 comments! I also fixed my first ClockCast so it is in MP3 format – more podcats will be coming soon. Then I went to see Sheril reading at Quail Ridge Books and wrote a review of ‘Bonk: The Curious Coupling of Science and Sex’ by Mary Roach.
PLoS-related, I announced the June Blog Pick of the Month (I will announce the July winner tomorrow), commented on the new focus on article-level metrics, and did an interview with Peter Sommer, PLoS ONE Section Editor for Virology. We published an exciting dinosaur paper which has its own special reason to be Open Access.
The series of interviews with the participants of ScienceOnline’09 continued, with interviews with Betul Kacar Arslan, Eva Amsen, GrrrlScientist, Miriam Goldstein, Katherine Haxton, Stephanie Zvan, Stacy Baker, Bob O’Hara, Djordje Jeremic, Erica Tsai, Elissa Hoffman, Henry Gee, Sam Dupuis and Russ Campbell.

The Open Laboratory 2009 – the submissions so far

OpenLab logo.jpg
Here are the submissions for OpenLab 2009 to date. As we have surpassed 240 entries, all of them, as well as the “submit” buttons and codes and the bookmarklet, are under the fold. You can buy the 2006, 2007 and 2008 editions at Lulu.com. Please use the submission form to add more of your and other people’s posts (remember that we are looking for original poems, art, cartoons and comics, as well as essays):

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New and Exciting in PLoS ONE

There are 14 new articles in PLoS ONE today. As always, you should rate the articles, post notes and comments and send trackbacks when you blog about the papers. You can now also easily place articles on various social services (CiteULike, Mendeley, Connotea, Stumbleupon, Facebook and Digg) with just one click. Here are my own picks for the week – you go and look for your own favourites:

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Refocusing PLoS Medicine’s Editorial vision (video)

Today’s carnivals – plants and animals

Berry Go Round # 19: Quiche Botanique is up on Quiche Moraine
Friday Ark #254 is up on Modulator

Future of science publishing interview

A few weeks ago in Lindau, Lars Fischer (remember his guest post here?) sat me down with the digital audio recorder and conducted an interview – we talked for about an hour about Open Access, future of scientific publishing/papers/communication, etc.
The article based on that interview is now online – you can read it here, but only if you can read German. Then you can tell me what is it that I actually said 😉
Update: the translation is now here.
Update 2: The entire transcript is now available online/

Clock Quotes

The most dangerous thing in the world is to make a friend of an Englishman, because he’ll come sleep in your closet rather than spend ten shillings on a hotel.
– Truman Capote

New and Exciting in PLoS this week

There are new articles in PLoS ONE, PLoS Genetics and PLoS Computational Biology today. As always, you should rate the articles, post notes and comments and send trackbacks when you blog about the papers. You can now also easily place articles on various social services (CiteULike, Mendeley, Connotea, Stumbleupon, Facebook and Digg) with just one click. Here are my own picks for the week – you go and look for your own favourites:
Does the Clock Make the Poison? Circadian Variation in Response to Pesticides:

Circadian clocks govern daily physiological and molecular rhythms, and putative rhythms in expression of xenobiotic metabolizing (XM) genes have been described in both insects and mammals. Such rhythms could have important consequences for outcomes of chemical exposures at different times of day. To determine whether reported XM gene expression rhythms result in functional rhythms, we examined daily profiles of enzyme activity and dose responses to the pesticides propoxur, deltamethrin, fipronil, and malathion. Published microarray expression data were examined for temporal patterns. Male Drosophila were collected for ethoxycoumarin-O-deethylase (ECOD), esterase, glutathione-S-transferase (GST), and, and uridine 5′-diphosphoglucosyltransferase (UGT) enzyme activity assays, or subjected to dose-response tests at four hour intervals throughout the day in both light/dark and constant light conditions. Peak expression of several XM genes cluster in late afternoon. Significant diurnal variation was observed in ECOD and UGT enzyme activity, however, no significant daily variation was observed in esterase or GST activity. Daily profiles of susceptibility to lethality after acute exposure to propoxur and fipronil showed significantly increased resistance in midday, while susceptibility to deltamethrin and malathion varied little. In constant light, which interferes with clock function, the daily variation in susceptibility to propoxur and in ECOD and UGT enzyme activity was depressed. Expression and activities of specific XM enzymes fluctuate during the day, and for specific insecticides, the concentration resulting in 50% mortality varies significantly during the day. Time of day of chemical exposure should be an important consideration in experimental design, use of pesticides, and human risk assessment.

Recent and Widespread Rapid Morphological Change in Rodents:

In general, rapid morphological change in mammals has been infrequently documented. Examples that do exist are almost exclusively of rodents on islands. Such changes are usually attributed to selective release or founder events related to restricted gene flow in island settings. Here we document rapid morphological changes in rodents in 20 of 28 museum series collected on four continents, including 15 of 23 mainland sites. Approximately 17,000 measurements were taken of 1302 rodents. Trends included both increases and decreases in the 15 morphological traits measured, but slightly more trends were towards larger size. Generalized linear models indicated that changes in several of the individual morphological traits were associated with changes in human population density, current temperature gradients, and/or trends in temperature and precipitation. When we restricted these analyses to samples taken in the US (where data on human population trends were presumed to be more accurate), we found changes in two additional traits to be positively correlated with changes in human population density. Principle component analysis revealed general trends in cranial and external size, but these general trends were uncorrelated with climate or human population density. Our results indicate that over the last 100+ years, rapid morphological change in rodents has occurred quite frequently, and that these changes have taken place on the mainland as well as on islands. Our results also suggest that these changes may be driven, at least in part, by human population growth and climate change.

Scientists←Editors←Scientists: The Past, Present, and Future of PLoS Genetics:

PLoS Genetics is different: different not only because of the PLoS-wide vision for open access and new ways of communicating science, but also in terms of administration and leadership. We are, first and foremost, a community journal, where editorial decisions and direction are made by consensus. This model, where responsibility is distributed among a team of more than 80 working scientists in a way that promotes and encourages discussion, has been nourished and developed fully by Wayne Frankel, who has been with the journal since its inception, and first introduced us to PLoS Genetics exactly four years ago. As the founding Editor-in-Chief, Wayne brought us to where we are today–with nearly 150 new submissions per month, a scope that covers the entire tree of life (and occasionally synthetic biology), and a focus on scientific substance together with a goal of serving the interests of both readers and authors. In making the transition from scientist to Editor-in-Chief, and again to scientist earlier this year, Wayne’s contributions have shown how one role can strengthen the other. Happily, he remains an active member of the Editorial Board, shepherding and consulting on manuscripts in the areas of mammalian genetics and neurobiology.

Evolution of a Novel Appendage Ground Plan in Water Striders Is Driven by Changes in the Hox Gene Ultrabithorax:

Water striders are derived semi-aquatic bugs that possess a remarkable diversity of leg lengths and shapes among species and between sexes, and the selective forces shaping this diversity are well studied. The transition to living on the water surface was accompanied by dramatic changes in the size and function of their legs. The mid-legs are disproportionately long and function as oars, whereas the hind-legs are shorter and function as rudders. We present evidence demonstrating that changes in the pattern of expression and function of the Hox gene Ultrabithorax are responsible for establishing the relative size differences between mid- and hind-legs in the water strider Gerris buenoi. These changes in Ubx expression and function may have been a key event in the evolution of the distinct appendage ground plan in water striders.

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ScienceOnline’09 – interview with Russ Campbell

The series of interviews with some of the participants of the 2008 Science Blogging Conference was quite popular, so I decided to do the same thing again this year, posting interviews with some of the people who attended ScienceOnline’09 back in January.
Today, I asked Russ Campbell from the Fishtown University blog to answer a few questions.
Welcome to A Blog Around the Clock. Would you, please, tell my readers a little bit more about yourself? Who are you? What is your background?
Russ Campbell pic.JPGHi Bora. First, thank you for the opportunity to share with your readers. I’m a big fan of your blog and your work with ScienceOnline. I’m a native of the Fishtown-section of Philadelphia. During the past six years I have been putting down roots in Durham, NC. My background is in university communications. I worked the arts and culture beat at the University of Pennsylvania and in electronic communications at UNC-Chapel Hill. I have always loved science, but we had a bit of a falling out during the high school years when I met literature and Albert Camus. Then Jack Kerouac and the Beats came along.
The past four years have been interesting as I’m attempting to combine my two loves of science and literature. It’s not easy, but I think one of the benefits of my liberal arts training has been the ability to make stuff up.
What do you want to be when you grow up?
The short answer is a novelist, but I think in the past few years that goal has morphed into some kind of intellectual explorer. There’s so much I find fascinating that I have commitment issues. I guess you can look at the people I hold in high esteem–Benjamin Franklin, Camus, Pardis Sabeti–to see that what I want are possibilities. I want to search for wisdom. I want to be a part of a community that strives to look for both answers and questions.
What is your real life job?
I’m the communications officer for the Burroughs Wellcome Fund, a private biomedical research foundation in North Carolina. The foundation also focuses on science education in North Carolina.
What I like most about my job is the freedom and flexibility I am allowed to explore new ideas like ScienceOnline. I think I have the greatest job in the world and I’m not just saying that because my boss might be reading.
What aspect of science communication and/or particular use of the Web in science interests you the most?
From a professional standpoint, I’m interested in how scientists use technology to share data. Your readers are more than aware of the explosion of data in recent years. It’s how scientists use that data I find interesting. Some fields of study are better than others.
But I’m also interested in the engagement factors of online media. There are a lot of great people out there doing interesting things, but I fear that a lot of it is preacher-to-choir.
How does blogging etc figure into your work?
I’m suspect about institutional blogs. That said, there is a place for it and some places do do it better than others. So blogging for me is on a more personal level with regard to work. I read a lot of different things on a lot of different topics so I created fishtownuniversity.com as an online notebook to attempt to make sense of what I was reading. I haven’t been very good about keeping it fresh, but I haven’t given up. In fact I should probably update before this comes out.
When and how did you discover science blogs? Favorites? New cool science blogs while at the Conference?
I discovered science blogs during the first N.C. science blogging conference in 2007. I didn’t know much about blogging. I’m not sure if I was even reading blogs then so the conference opened up a whole new world to me right in my backyard.
You were probably one of the first I started reading. Now I read The Intersection, Science Cheerleader, Isis, Abel Pharmboy, Kirsten Sanford’s A Bird’s Brain. I also like ScienceGoddess who set up a youtube channel for her book reviews.
I also follow several education blogs like Instructify and This Week in Education. I’m not going to mention the sports blogs–but I like what the Phillies are doing.
Is there anything that happened at the conference that changed the way your think about science communication?
There’s not a lot different in science communication then there is in creative writing. Two keys points are know your audience and tell a good story. One of the best things of last year’s conference was Rebecca Skloot‘s talk. Just an amazing and compelling story–I cannot wait for her book to come out.
As for the audience bit, it’s easy to get swept up in our own little worlds and circles. I try to keep in mind that there’s a much larger audience that doesn’t care what I, or anyone at ScienceOnline is saying. How do you reach that audience? When I start thinking about it my head hurts and I feel the need to read Derrida.
I started thinking about Science Communicators of North Carolina (SCONC) around the time of the first science blogging conference. Here were all these people that worked within a 20 mile radius and I had no clue. Chris Brodie and I joke that the only time we got together for a beer was in San Francisco, Boston, or St. Louis. That was ridiculous as he worked a mile down the road. Brodie and I got together and made it happen and it has taken on a life of its own. There’s buy in and support from so many different people. It may be my proudest professional accomplishment.
It was nice to see you again and thank you for the interview. I hope to see you again next January (and a few times before then).
Thank you very much. Keep up the good work and I look forward to the next time I see you.
==========================
See the 2008 interview series and 2009 series for more.

Today’s carnivals

The 116th Meeting of the Skeptics’ Circle is up Beyond the Short Coat

Launching and Running PLoS Medicine (video)

Clock Quotes

A dying man needs to die, as a sleepy man needs to sleep, and there comes a time when it is wrong, as well as useless, to resist.
– Stewart Alsop

Cameron Neylon on Article Level Metrics

On Vimeo:

Article-level Metrics from PLoS on Vimeo.

New and Exciting in PLoS ONE

There are 21 new articles in PLoS ONE today. As always, you should rate the articles, post notes and comments and send trackbacks when you blog about the papers. You can now also easily place articles on various social services (CiteULike, Mendeley, Connotea, Stumbleupon, Facebook and Digg) with just one click. Here are my own picks for the week – you go and look for your own favourites:

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Today’s carnivals

Four Stone Hearth #72 is up on A Hot Cup of Joe

Clock Quotes

If an eye never falls asleep, All dreams will by themselves cease: If the mind retains its absoluteness, The ten thousand things are of one suchness.
– Seng-T’San (540-606 AD)

New and Exciting in PLoS ONE

There are 31 new articles in PLoS ONE today. As always, you should rate the articles, post notes and comments and send trackbacks when you blog about the papers. You can now also easily place articles on various social services (CiteULike, Mendeley, Connotea, Stumbleupon, Facebook and Digg) with just one click. Here are my own picks for the week – you go and look for your own favourites:
Climate Change, Habitat Loss, Protected Areas and the Climate Adaptation Potential of Species in Mediterranean Ecosystems Worldwide:

Mediterranean climate is found on five continents and supports five global biodiversity hotspots. Based on combined downscaled results from 23 atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for three emissions scenarios, we determined the projected spatial shifts in the mediterranean climate extent (MCE) over the next century. Although most AOGCMs project a moderate expansion in the global MCE, regional impacts are large and uneven. The median AOGCM simulation output for the three emissions scenarios project the MCE at the end of the 21st century in Chile will range from 129-153% of its current size, while in Australia, it will contract to only 77-49% of its current size losing an area equivalent to over twice the size of Portugal. Only 4% of the land area within the current MCE worldwide is in protected status (compared to a global average of 12% for all biome types), and, depending on the emissions scenario, only 50-60% of these protected areas are likely to be in the future MCE. To exacerbate the climate impact, nearly one third (29-31%) of the land where the MCE is projected to remain stable has already been converted to human use, limiting the size of the potential climate refuges and diminishing the adaptation potential of native biota. High conversion and low protection in projected stable areas make Australia the highest priority region for investment in climate-adaptation strategies to reduce the threat of climate change to the rich biodiversity of the mediterranean biome.

Autosomal Resequence Data Reveal Late Stone Age Signals of Population Expansion in Sub-Saharan African Foraging and Farming Populations:

A major unanswered question in the evolution of Homo sapiens is when anatomically modern human populations began to expand: was demographic growth associated with the invention of particular technologies or behavioral innovations by hunter-gatherers in the Late Pleistocene, or with the acquisition of farming in the Neolithic? We investigate the timing of human population expansion by performing a multilocus analysis of≥20 unlinked autosomal noncoding regions, each consisting of ~6 kilobases, resequenced in ~184 individuals from 7 human populations. We test the hypothesis that the autosomal polymorphism data fit a simple two-phase growth model, and when the hypothesis is not rejected, we fit parameters of this model to our data using approximate Bayesian computation. The data from the three surveyed non-African populations (French Basque, Chinese Han, and Melanesians) are inconsistent with the simple growth model, presumably because they reflect more complex demographic histories. In contrast, data from all four sub-Saharan African populations fit the two-phase growth model, and a range of onset times and growth rates is inferred for each population. Interestingly, both hunter-gatherers (San and Biaka) and food-producers (Mandenka and Yorubans) best fit models with population growth beginning in the Late Pleistocene. Moreover, our hunter-gatherer populations show a tendency towards slightly older and stronger growth (~41 thousand years ago, ~13-fold) than our food-producing populations (~31 thousand years ago, ~7-fold). These dates are concurrent with the appearance of the Late Stone Age in Africa, supporting the hypothesis that population growth played a significant role in the evolution of Late Pleistocene human cultures.

Reinforcement Learning or Active Inference?:

This paper questions the need for reinforcement learning or control theory when optimising behaviour. We show that it is fairly simple to teach an agent complicated and adaptive behaviours using a free-energy formulation of perception. In this formulation, agents adjust their internal states and sampling of the environment to minimize their free-energy. Such agents learn causal structure in the environment and sample it in an adaptive and self-supervised fashion. This results in behavioural policies that reproduce those optimised by reinforcement learning and dynamic programming. Critically, we do not need to invoke the notion of reward, value or utility. We illustrate these points by solving a benchmark problem in dynamic programming; namely the mountain-car problem, using active perception or inference under the free-energy principle. The ensuing proof-of-concept may be important because the free-energy formulation furnishes a unified account of both action and perception and may speak to a reappraisal of the role of dopamine in the brain.

Transcriptomic Profiling of Central Nervous System Regions in Three Species of Honey Bee during Dance Communication Behavior:

We conducted a large-scale transcriptomic profiling of selected regions of the central nervous system (CNS) across three species of honey bees, in foragers that were performing dance behavior to communicate to their nestmates the location, direction and profitability of an attractive floral resource. We used microarrays to measure gene expression in bees from Apis mellifera, dorsata and florea, species that share major traits unique to the genus and also show striking differences in biology and dance communication. The goals of this study were to determine the extent of regional specialization in gene expression and to explore the molecular basis of dance communication. This “snapshot” of the honey bee CNS during dance behavior provides strong evidence for both species-consistent and species-specific differences in gene expression. Gene expression profiles in the mushroom bodies consistently showed the biggest differences relative to the other CNS regions. There were strong similarities in gene expression between the central brain and the second thoracic ganglion across all three species; many of the genes were related to metabolism and energy production. We also obtained gene expression differences between CNS regions that varied by species: A. mellifera differed the most, while dorsata and florea tended to be more similar. Species differences in gene expression perhaps mirror known differences in nesting habit, ecology and dance behavior between mellifera, florea and dorsata. Species-specific differences in gene expression in selected CNS regions that relate to synaptic activity and motor control provide particularly attractive candidate genes to explain the differences in dance behavior exhibited by these three honey bee species. Similarities between central brain and thoracic ganglion provide a unique perspective on the potential coupling of these two motor-related regions during dance behavior and perhaps provide a snapshot of the energy intensive process of dance output generation. Mushroom body results reflect known roles for this region in the regulation of learning, memory and rhythmic behavior.

Chemosensory Cues to Conspecific Emotional Stress Activate Amygdala in Humans:

Alarm substances are airborne chemical signals, released by an individual into the environment, which communicate emotional stress between conspecifics. Here we tested whether humans, like other mammals, are able to detect emotional stress in others by chemosensory cues. Sweat samples collected from individuals undergoing an acute emotional stressor, with exercise as a control, were pooled and presented to a separate group of participants (blind to condition) during four experiments. In an fMRI experiment and its replication, we showed that scanned participants showed amygdala activation in response to samples obtained from donors undergoing an emotional, but not physical, stressor. An odor-discrimination experiment suggested the effect was primarily due to emotional, and not odor, differences between the two stimuli. A fourth experiment investigated behavioral effects, demonstrating that stress samples sharpened emotion-perception of ambiguous facial stimuli. Together, our findings suggest human chemosensory signaling of emotional stress, with neurobiological and behavioral effects.

Bio-Benchmarking of Electronic Nose Sensors:

Electronic noses, E-Noses, are instruments designed to reproduce the performance of animal noses or antennae but generally they cannot match the discriminating power of the biological original and have, therefore, been of limited utility. The manner in which odorant space is sampled is a critical factor in the performance of all noses but so far it has been described in detail only for the fly antenna. Here we describe how a set of metal oxide (MOx) E-Nose sensors, which is the most commonly used type, samples odorant space and compare it with what is known about fly odorant receptors (ORs). Compared with a fly’s odorant receptors, MOx sensors from an electronic nose are on average more narrowly tuned but much more highly correlated with each other. A set of insect ORs can therefore sample broader regions of odorant space independently and redundantly than an equivalent number of MOx sensors. The comparison also highlights some important questions about the molecular nature of fly ORs. The comparative approach generates practical learnings that may be taken up by solid-state physicists or engineers in designing new solid-state electronic nose sensors. It also potentially deepens our understanding of the performance of the biological system.

The Impact of National Institutes of Health Funding on U.S. Cardiovascular Disease Research:

Intense interest surrounds the recent expansion of US National Institutes of Health (NIH) budgets as part of economic stimulus legislation. However, the relationship between NIH funding and cardiovascular disease research is poorly understood, making the likely impact of this policy change unclear. The National Library of Medicine’s PubMed database was searched for articles published from 1996 to 2006, originating from U.S. institutions, and containing the phrases “cardiolog,” “cardiovascular,” or “cardiac,” in the first author’s department. Research methodology, journal of publication, journal impact factor, and receipt of NIH funding were recorded. Differences in means and trends were tested with t-tests and linear regression, respectively, with P≤0.05 for significance. Of 117,643 world cardiovascular articles, 36,684 (31.2%) originated from the U.S., of which 10,293 (28.1%) received NIH funding. The NIH funded 40.1% of U.S. basic science articles, 20.3% of overall clinical trials, 18.1% of randomized-controlled, and 12.2% of multicenter clinical trials. NIH-funded and total articles grew significantly (65 articles/year, P<0.001 and 218 articles/year, P<0.001, respectively). The proportion of articles receiving NIH funding was stable, but grew significantly for basic science and clinical trials (0.87%/year, P<0.001 and 0.67%/year, P = 0.029, respectively). NIH-funded articles had greater journal impact factors than non NIH-funded articles (5.76 vs. 3.71, P<0.001). NIH influence on U.S. cardiovascular research expanded in the past decade, during the period of NIH budget doubling. A substantial fraction of research is now directly funded and thus likely sensitive to budget fluctuations, particularly in basic science research. NIH funding predicts greater journal impact.

The Open Laboratory 2009 – the submissions so far

OpenLab logo.jpg
Here are the submissions for OpenLab 2009 to date. As we have surpassed 230 entries, all of them, as well as the “submit” buttons and codes and the bookmarklet, are under the fold. You can buy the 2006, 2007 and 2008 editions at Lulu.com. Please use the submission form to add more of your and other people’s posts (remember that we are looking for original poems, art, cartoons and comics, as well as essays):

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Today’s carnivals

Grand Rounds 5:45 are up on Captain Atopic
The 190th edition of the Carnival of the Green is up on Lighter Footstep

Clock Quotes

There never was a child so lovely but his mother was glad to get him asleep.
– Ralph Waldo Emerson

New and Exciting in PLoS this week

Lots of cool papers today in 4 out of 7 PLoS journals! As always, you should rate the articles, post notes and comments and send trackbacks when you blog about the papers. You can now also easily place articles on various social services (CiteULike, Mendeley, Connotea, Stumbleupon, Facebook and Digg) with just one click. Here are my own picks – you go and look for your own favourites:

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Praxis

Open Access and the divide between ‘mainstream’ and ‘peripheral’ science (also available here and here) by Jean-Claude Guédon is a Must Read of the day. Anyone have his contact info so I can see if he would come to ScienceOnline’10?
There is a whole bunch of articles about science publication metrics in the latest ESEP THEME SECTION – The use and misuse of bibliometric indices in evaluating scholarly performance. Well worth studying. On article-level metrics, there are some interesting reactions in the blogosphere, by Deepak Singh, Bjoern Brembs, Duncan Hull, Bill Hooker and Abhishek Tiwari. Check them out. Of course, all of those guys are also on FriendFeed where more discussion occured.
Can someone use FOIA to sneak a peak into your grant proposal and check-out your preliminary data? See the discussion on DrugMunkey blog, on Dr.Isis’ blog and on Heather Etchevers’ blog. My beef: don’t use the term “Open Access” for this as it is not related. This is not even Open Notebok Science – which, and I am on record in several places about this – MUST be voluntary and does not fit everyone.

Gavin Yamey, the Senior Magazine Editor of PLoS Medicine, is currently on sabbatical from the journal after being awarded a “mini-fellowship” from the Kaiser Family Foundation to undertake a project as a reporter in East Africa and Sudan.

His first two posts about this: Reporting from East Africa and Sudan and Far from the reach of global health programs.
The “article of the future” by Cell/Elsevier, analyzed by DrugMonkey, Kent Anderson, Marshall Kirkpatrick and Martin Fenner.

Put down the duckie (at least don’t throw it into the ocean)!

Miriam Goldstein of the Oyster’s Garter and Double X blogs (follow her on Twitter) is embarking on a sea-faring expedition!
SEAPLEX is a Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego project studying plastics – yes, including the rubber duckies – accumulating in the oceans, specifically in the North Pacific Gyre. Miriam is leading the team of PhD students and volunteers who will be studying various aspects of the plastics in the sea and their environmental impact.
Though the life at sea is hard and busy and they will not have much time (or access) to do so, they will try to keep us all updated via blog and Twitter, so start following them now.

ScienceOnline’09 – interview with Sam Dupuis

The series of interviews with some of the participants of the 2008 Science Blogging Conference was quite popular, so I decided to do the same thing again this year, posting interviews with some of the people who attended ScienceOnline’09 back in January.
Today, I asked Sam Dupuis from the Science of Sorts on My Mind blog (and yes, he is the son of John Dupuis, if the last name sounded familiar to you), to answer a few questions.
Welcome to A Blog Around The Clock. Would you, please, tell my readers a little bit more about yourself? Who are you? What is your (scientific) background?
SamDupuis pic.JPGGlad to be here, in that way one can be said to have a presence on the Internet. My full name is Samuel Allen Greene Dupuis, and a while ago I discovered that if I, for almost whatever reason, were to change my name, then I’d also go for an acronym that would, suffice to say, not be SAGD. I’m sixteen years old at the time of writing this (I was about to turn 16 when I was at ScienceOnline ’09). I currently go to Northern SS in Toronto, Canada, and I’m trying to emphasize math, science, and languages while I’m here. I’ve also found myself referring to my school path as a ‘build’, which may go to show exactly how much I play DotA (First, think World of Warcraft, The company that made it is Blizzard; they also make Warcraft III. This is a strategy game in which one may also create their own modified versions and spread them online; one map [a ‘version’ here is essentially a map with rules] is called Defence of the Ancients (DotA); I play it).
What do you want to do/be when (and if ever) you grow up, and what is growing up anyway?
I plan on being either a medical researcher or a physicist, but plans change; I’ve had other ideas in the past, and I’ll probably have new ones later (being a politician just to see how I fare when I throw myself into the eye of the public storm). With regard to growing up, I’m thinking for now that the difference between someone in their late teens and someone who’s 40 or 50, as far as personality goes, isn’t huge. In my opinion, the difference may be between what they know when they’re younger and when they’re older.
Now, what said person ‘knows’ pretty much amounts to their experiences, from information they’ve acquired to experiences they’ve felt deeply affected by. It doesn’t seem like an easily falsifiable hypothesis, so for now I’m just noting it as almost entirely pointless, but amusing, speculation. Growing up, as far as I know, would be an increase in maturity up to some semi- (but not completely) arbitrary threshold, which would be some series of thresholds across a wide range of ways a person behaves. Now, it seems that I’ve become a nihilist over the last few years (I’d only really thought about it recently, and I figure myself to be the heroic variety as defined in this article. Please trust me not to have said this only because it looks awesome, and I acknowledge this is only coming from Wikipedia).
I think words like maturity, good, bad and beneficial are subjective through and through, and that one doesn’t always have to be mature to benefit oneself and society (Please note that I have and will continue to toss these words around for now for simplicity’s sake– because we’re all ok with that, right?). I’ll say now that the one thing I may never change my mind on is that I’ll be changing my mind on at least something or another for as long as I live. And though I may try to mature for a while, I may go where I will depending on what I’m thinking at the time, because when predicting the future, even my own, I’m very ambiguous. So I’ll probably do some more growing up, maybe some growing down (shrinking?) and other maturity-morphing sideways, forwards, backwards, and into other imagined dimensions where I find them (because I like trying to think outside the cube).
What is your Real Life job?
I did some volunteering over the summer–it ended yesterday, and I’ve looked after some guy’s house for small amounts of money (taking turns/splitting the money with my brother, at that), but I’m still a jobless high school student. In fact, my brother has a job, and he’s only entering high school this year. I like to say I’m less of a materialist and capitalist than he is. He retorts by calling me a jobless hippie. We’re at a standstill on that one right now.
What aspect of science communication and/or particular use of the Web in science interests you the most?
I’m not entirely sure. I haven’t explored these in much depth. This may just be a thought that occurred to me because my attention span can be sub-par, but I’ve been wondering how people can most efficiently manage citation and other references online. For instance, say you’re in one of the endless number of online arguments about something in which there isn’t necessarily scientific consensus, but there is a substantial amount of literature from experts, as well as data to go with it. Now, there are people who simply won’t be careful enough with how they manage this without at least being told sternly to do so, but otherwise it can be annoying (at least from my point of view) to comb through huge amounts of writing to, to some degree, memorize every single relevant point (so you don’t get berated for missing it, on top of actually being better informed).
I’ve been wondering (just now, not for any serious length of time) if there’s some sort of more advanced search system for word documents that doesn’t just find specific words or phrases, but that can also search on specific pages when prompted, specific paragraphs, sections, and any (or some) other conceivable divisions a document can have– even on one or another side of media or other objects that may be in the document. Also, what if one could import parameters from someone else that would take the receiver to exactly where the sender intended? What if one could also have searches that could open up other windows or at least show different parts of a document at the same time, for example, pairing original text and annotations? There are probably myriad other places such Xtremely-advanced searching could go, and there may also be the equivalents (or the same things) as everything I’ve mentioned, somewhere out there. Much or all of it may just be further convenience for the already lazy. Still, I’m interested in more accessibility not necessarily geared only toward experts (who are presumably more patient anyway), but as a way to more easily spread relevant information to laypeople (from laypeople and experts alike) who aren’t otherwise willing to look carefully and for a while through piles of information when not all of it is actually necessary with regard to what’s relevant to the issue at hand (I had been mostly thinking about that since SO09, pretty much, but I’ve also been interested by all the citations on Wikipedia).
What would I pair that with? A chat system, which in turn would be combined with a forum, sounds interesting; ScienceOnline is itself largely about the many ways scientists can communicate with each other, so I’m sure there are several versions of the pairing I just mentioned. With the addition of many of the other services that are becoming, have become and may become available, this might be one more thing tacked on that, hopefully, would be helpful without being intrusive, bulky, redundant, or otherwise unneeded.
How does (if it does) blogging figure in your work? How about social networks, e.g., Twitter, FriendFeed and Facebook? How much will they in the future?
In Grade 9, I had a science project to do that was supposed to be about anything that had to do with the curriculum. They were pretty loose on this definition: if it in any way had to do with space, biology, physics, or electromagnetism (the very direct subset of physics we went into with more detail), you could go on any sort of quest to find out more about it provided you could and it was legal. This was such an open-ended and large assignment that my mind was blown for a couple of minutes (not because it was only one or another, but both). Then I wasn’t sure what to do. I can’t remember who later suggested a blog (me or my dad, who’s prodded me a lot and for a while now to keep my blog going), but I ended up writing a blog about what I could learn about space exploration. It has simply become my blog, and is found at samandspace.blogspot.com. I’ve been filling the blog with things I find online, when I get inspired (but often when my dad asks for some consistency, too; he still often gives me great places to go, too), and it’s had a few visitors from Google or links from my dad’s blog. I guess it shouldn’t be too surprising that a solid portion of these visitors have been from faraway countries, but it’s still amazing to see that tracked.
Blogging aside, I haven’t really used much social networking at school; often I use email for working out project dates and for handling electronic information with group members, and toward the end of last year I found Facebook useful for contacting people in a hurry (because I’m not the only person I know who lets things go down to the wire). I got on Twitter briefly for some reason I’ve now forgotten, and I haven’t used Friendfeed or any other site specifically used for networking with an identity. I went on Omegle for a week or so at one point, just because conversations could occasionally go to heights that were beyond hilarity. All in all I haven’t used social networking much at school, but I’m coming to use it more.
When and how did you discover science blogs? What are some of your favourites? Have you discovered any new cool science blogs while at the Conference?
I found out about science blogs (more specifically scienceblogs.com) a few years ago… when my dad told me about them. That constant aspect of my knowledge has been embarrassing, but I still have to mention it. I guess I’ll be looking more at Bora’s blog now (I probably should have visited more of these right after the conference), and in the past my dad’s talked about Uncertain Principles and Not Even Wrong the former is on SB, the latter is the first result of a Google search). So far, I’ve liked things each of these blogs brings to the table. It’s a small number I know right now, and each of them has pretty much equally grabbed my attention (although I don’t, again, actually use scientific networking too much right now– blasphemer!). At the conference itself, it wasn’t so much an issue of finding any new blogs, but of actually remembering the names of some of them from the endless tide. I haven’t, but I do now have the luxury of combing through the interviews Bora’s conducting (I only knew they existed a few weeks ago when- surprise- my dad told me he had been contacted about my interview). I do plan on checking these out in more detail at the end of the summer though, because the variety of information looks interesting to no end (I’ll have little, if any, access to the Internet for the coming month).
Is there anything that happened at this Conference – a session, something someone said or did or wrote – that will change the way you think about science communication, or something that you will take with you to your job, blog-reading, blog-writing and whatever else you may be doing over the course of your life?
As with finding blogs, it isn’t so much an issue of if I found anything, but if I could remember even half of all the things I thought would be useful knowledge for later. I had been advised to take notes in each session (I won’t even bother saying who gave that advice now), and those notes should still be somewhere in the house. One thing that had been discussed in the conference that I am actively annoyed about because I can’t remember it clearly (although I don’t think it was a simple construct) was how some open-source projects do actually make money for the people behind them, such as PLoS. This actually seems a bit relevant to what I want to do for a living later: I would like to work in the public domain, and one would just have to take my word for it that I’m thinking of that because even if the pay isn’t phenomenal, the goal would be to work somewhat out of goodwill as well as the quest for capital, and I’ll get epic job stability if I work at a university, for a while, and do very well. The conference further inspired me to take a look at what I actually want to work toward when I go to work, not only pulling in money for food and shelter (again, if I end up with a ‘real job’, which I’m still hoping for), but actually providing something useful to the people I’m working for. Going into open-source, copyleft (I found that word out recently and wherever I did, I regret not being able to give that person credit) and the sort would presumably indicate the person going into it has good intentions. They may also be taking the high road solely to impress people, say they did, or for some other selfish reason, but everyone reading can only take my word on it that those aren’t the only things I’m thinking of.
It was also reinforced at the conference that there’s a lot to be critical of in the world of science, and that one has to look patiently and carefully at where ‘something’ (a tool, a database, etc.) comes from, how it’s used, who’s using it, how it’s turning out, etc. to find out whether or not it’s doing what it was designed to do (or at least that it’s being used ethically– I have to credit a lot of what I remember to Bjoern). Every time I go to a conference like this one (I have been to a couple), it shows me more of the complexity and inner workings of scientific establishments, both their good sides and bad. Further, it makes me interested in examining them even more.
It was so nice to meet you and thank you for the interview. I hope to see you again next January.
I hope to see you and everyone else (I knew of) again too (and many more)!
==========================
See the 2008 interview series and 2009 series for more.

Clock Quotes

Living next to you is in some ways like sleeping with an elephant: No matter how friendly and even-tempered the beast, one is affected by every twitch and grunt.
– Pierre Elliott Trudeau

Books: ‘Bonk: The Curious Coupling of Science and Sex’ by Mary Roach

A few years ago, I read Mary Roach’s first book, Stiff: The Curious Lives of Human Cadavers and absolutely loved it! One of the best popular science books I have read in a long time – informative, eye-opening, thought-provoking and funny. Somehow I missed finding time to read her second (Spook: Science Tackles the Afterlife – I guess just not a topic I care much about), but when her third book came out, with such a provocative title as Bonk: The Curious Coupling of Science and Sex, I could not resist.
And I was not disappointed. It is informative, eye-opening, thought-provoking and funny. The language we use to talk about sex (and death) is so rich, and so full of thinly (or thickly) veiled allusions, that playing with that language is easy. Puns and double-entendres come off effortlessly and yet never seem to grow old. And the effect of interspersing serious discussion of science with what amounts to, essentially, Kindergarten humor, makes the humor effective. I guess it is the effect of surprise. The same humor in a different context (or outside of any context) may not be as effective or funny. The book made me laugh out loud on many occasions, startling the other B-767 passengers on the trans-Atlantic flight a couple of weeks ago (if it was B-777, as American Airlines promised, I would have slept, but the smaller airplane made that impossible, so I read about sex instead).
I should not point out any specific examples of research described in the book – there’s so much of it – as I don’t want to take the wind out of Scicurious’ sails: she uses the book as a starting point for many of her Friday Weird Science posts.
And I will not even attempt to write a real book review (see the review by Scicurious and the series of posts on The Intersection for more details. Also check out Greta Christina and Dr.Joan for different takes).
Instead, I will mention something that I kept noticing over and over again in each chapter. An obsession of mine, or a case of a person with a hammer seeing nails everywhere, you decide.
On one hand, the history of science shows a trajectory of ever improving standards of research, more and more stringent criteria for statistics and drawing conclusions from the data, more and more stringent ethical criteria for the use of animal and human subjects in research, etc. As the time goes on, the results of scientific research are becoming more and more reliable (far from 100%, of course, but a huge improvement over Aristotle, Galen or the Ancient Chinese who could write down their wildest ideas with authoritative flair).
On the other hand, the language of science has become, over time, more and more technical and unintelligible to a lay reader. The ancient ‘scientific’ and ‘medical’ scripts, the books of 300 years ago, the Letters to the Academy of 200 years ago, the early scientific papers of 100 years ago – all of those were readable and understandable by everyone who could read. Of course, in the past, only the most educated sliver of the society was literate. Today, most people are literate (ignoring some geographical difference in the rates of literacy for the moment). But even the most educated sliver of the society, unless they are experts in the same scientific field, cannot understand a scientific paper.
Thus, as the science gets ever more reliable through history, it also becomes less and less understandable to an educated lay reader. Why is that so?
In the past, the educated lay reader was the intended audience for the scientific and medical writings. Today, the intended audience are colleagues. The papers are hidden behind paywalls and accessible only to people in big First World research institutions where the libraries have sufficient funds to pay for journal subscriptions. The communication to the lay audience is relegated to the non-experts: the media (which does an awful job of it) and science writers (who often do a great job, but their audience is severely limited to self-selected science aficionados).
I have been wondering for a while now (see the end of this post for an early example – and we had an entire session on the topic at ScienceOnline’09) if Open Access and the new metrics (that include media/blog coverage, downloads and bookmarks – all requiring that as many people as possible can understand the paper itself) will prompt authors of scientific papers to write keeping broader audiences in mind. Even if the “Materials and Methods” and “Results” sections need to remain technical, perhaps the Abstract, Introduction and Discussion (and in more and more journals also the “Author’s Summary”) will become more readable? At least the titles should be clear – and sometimes funny.
Last week I asked (on Twitter, FriendFeed and Facebook – but FriendFeed, again, proved to be the best platform for this kind of inquiry) for examples of witty, normal-language titles of scientific papers. You can see some responses here and everyone reminded me of NCBI ROFL, the blog that specializes in finding wacky papers with wacky titles. Many, but certainly not all, of such titles indeed cover the science of sex.
Do you see this trend towards abandoning unreadable scientese (at least in titles) happening now or in the near future? Is it more likely to happen in OA journals? Do you have good examples?
In the meantime, watch Mary Roach – see why humor is an important aspect of science communication to lay audiences:

Today’s carnivals

Carnival of Space #113 is up on Dynamics of Cats

Clock Quotes

The less people know about how sausages and laws are made, the better they’ll sleep at night.
– Otto von Bismarck

Perfect pesticides for organic vegetable trees on the non-slavery West Coast

Clock Quotes

A man who is eating or lying with his wife or preparing to go to sleep in humility, thankfulness and temperance, is, by Christian standards, in an infinitely higher state than one who is listening to Bach or reading Plato in a state of pride.
– Clive Staples Lewis

New and Exciting in PLoS this week

On Fridays I usually take a look at new papers in all seven PLoS journals. As always, you should rate the articles, post notes and comments and send trackbacks when you blog about the papers. You can now also easily place articles on various social services (CiteULike, Mendeley, Connotea, Stumbleupon, Facebook and Digg) with just one click. Here are my own picks for the week – you go and look for your own favourites:
Circadian Clock Genes Contribute to the Regulation of Hair Follicle Cycling:

The hair follicle renews itself by repeatedly cycling among growth, regression, and rest phases. One function of hair follicle cycling is to allow seasonal changes in hair growth. Understanding the regulation of hair follicle cycling is also of interest because abnormal regulation of hair cycle control genes is responsible for several types of human hair growth disorders and skin cancers. We report here that Clock and Bmal1 genes, which control circadian rhythms, are also important for the regulation of hair follicle cycling, a biological process of much longer duration than 24 hours. Detailed analysis of skin from mice mutated for central clock genes indicates a significant delay in the progression of the hair growth phase. We show that clock genes affect the expression of key cell cycle control genes and that keratinocytes in a critical compartment of the hair follicles in Bmal1 mutant mice are halted in the G1 phase of the cell cycle. These findings provide novel insight into circadian control mechanisms in modulating the progression of cyclic biological processes on different time scales.

Impact of Selection and Demography on the Diffusion of Lactase Persistence:

The lactase enzyme allows lactose digestion in fresh milk. Its activity strongly decreases after the weaning phase in most humans, but persists at a high frequency in Europe and some nomadic populations. Two hypotheses are usually proposed to explain the particular distribution of the lactase persistence phenotype. The gene-culture coevolution hypothesis supposes a nutritional advantage of lactose digestion in pastoral populations. The calcium assimilation hypothesis suggests that carriers of the lactase persistence allele(s) (LCT*P) are favoured in high-latitude regions, where sunshine is insufficient to allow accurate vitamin-D synthesis. In this work, we test the validity of these two hypotheses on a large worldwide dataset of lactase persistence frequencies by using several complementary approaches. We first analyse the distribution of lactase persistence in various continents in relation to geographic variation, pastoralism levels, and the genetic patterns observed for other independent polymorphisms. Then we use computer simulations and a large database of archaeological dates for the introduction of domestication to explore the evolution of these frequencies in Europe according to different demographic scenarios and selection intensities. Our results show that gene-culture coevolution is a likely hypothesis in Africa as high LCT*P frequencies are preferentially found in pastoral populations. In Europe, we show that population history played an important role in the diffusion of lactase persistence over the continent. Moreover, selection pressure on lactase persistence has been very high in the North-western part of the continent, by contrast to the South-eastern part where genetic drift alone can explain the observed frequencies. This selection pressure increasing with latitude is highly compatible with the calcium assimilation hypothesis while the gene-culture coevolution hypothesis cannot be ruled out if a positively selected lactase gene was carried at the front of the expansion wave during the Neolithic transition in Europe.

Bioluminescent Imaging of Trypanosoma brucei Shows Preferential Testis Dissemination Which May Hamper Drug Efficacy in Sleeping Sickness:

Human African trypanosomiasis or sleeping sickness, caused by two subspecies of Trypanosoma brucei, is endemic in Subsaharan Africa. There is no vaccine and the currently used drugs are toxic and can cause severe side effects and even death. At present, we do not know how and when parasites can leave the blood and penetrate into organs (especially the brain). Such knowledge will be very helpful to develop and validate new drugs that can clear the parasite from both the blood and the tissues. In this study, we developed a novel technique allowing us to track the parasites in a live animal by the use of light signals. By following the luminescent parasites in the mouse we showed that, interestingly, the organisms migrate very early in infection to the testes. Here, they may be protected from the immune system and from drugs. Indeed when treating the mice with a sub-optimal dose of medicine, the parasites in this location were not cleared and subsequently could cause a reinvasion into the blood of the host.

Does Genetic Diversity Predict Health in Humans?:

Genetic diversity, especially at genes important for immune functioning within the Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC), has been associated with fitness-related traits, including disease resistance, in many species. Recently, genetic diversity has been associated with mate preferences in humans. Here we asked whether these preferences are adaptive in terms of obtaining healthier mates. We investigated whether genetic diversity (heterozygosity and standardized mean d2) at MHC and nonMHC microsatellite loci, predicted health in 153 individuals. Individuals with greater allelic diversity (d2) at nonMHC loci and at one MHC locus, linked to HLA-DRB1, reported fewer symptoms over a four-month period than individuals with lower d2. In contrast, there were no associations between MHC or nonMHC heterozygosity and health. NonMHC-d2 has previously been found to predict male preferences for female faces. Thus, the current findings suggest that nonMHC diversity may play a role in both natural and sexual selection acting on human populations.

Coevolution of Interacting Fertilization Proteins:

When a sperm meets an egg, it must display the correct recognition proteins to achieve fertilization. Given the importance of fertilization one would think these proteins are perfected and do not change over time; however, recent studies show that they do change and quite rapidly. Thus, the sperm and egg must change together in harmony, through a process called coevolution, so the species can successfully reproduce. We followed the sperm-egg coevolutionary process at the level of genes: one that makes the protective egg coat and a sperm gene which opens that coat for fertilization. By examining their DNA sequences in two abalone species, we revealed two coevolutionary signatures. In one case, we discovered an association of variants between the egg and sperm genes, the origin of which could be strong preference for compatible variants. In the second case, we demonstrated that both genes changed at correlated rates over millions of years of evolution. Whenever one gene had accelerated in one species, the other showed a parallel acceleration in that same species. These unique signatures help us to understand coevolution by revealing its strength within natural populations and by showing that it has acted consistently over long time periods.

Saccadic Compression of Rectangle and Kanizsa Figures: Now You See It, Now You Don’t:

Observers misperceive the location of points within a scene as compressed towards the goal of a saccade. However, recent studies suggest that saccadic compression does not occur for discrete elements such as dots when they are perceived as unified objects like a rectangle. We investigated the magnitude of horizontal vs. vertical compression for Kanizsa figure (a collection of discrete elements unified into single perceptual objects by illusory contours) and control rectangle figures. Participants were presented with Kanizsa and control figures and had to decide whether the horizontal or vertical length of stimulus was longer using the two-alternative force choice method. Our findings show that large but not small Kanizsa figures are perceived as compressed, that such compression is large in the horizontal dimension and small or nil in the vertical dimension. In contrast to recent findings, we found no saccadic compression for control rectangles. Our data suggest that compression of Kanizsa figure has been overestimated in previous research due to methodological artifacts, and highlight the importance of studying perceptual phenomena by multiple methods.

The Roles and Interactions of Symbiont, Host and Environment in Defining Coral Fitness:

Reef-building corals live in symbiosis with a diverse range of dinoflagellate algae (genus Symbiodinium) that differentially influence the fitness of the coral holobiont. The comparative role of symbiont type in holobiont fitness in relation to host genotype or the environment, however, is largely unknown. We addressed this knowledge gap by manipulating host-symbiont combinations and comparing growth, survival and thermal tolerance among the resultant holobionts in different environments. Offspring of the coral, Acropora millepora, from two thermally contrasting locations, were experimentally infected with one of six Symbiodinium types, which spanned three phylogenetic clades (A, C and D), and then outplanted to the two parental field locations (central and southern inshore Great Barrier Reef, Australia). Growth and survival of juvenile corals were monitored for 31-35 weeks, after which their thermo-tolerance was experimentally assessed. Our results showed that: (1) Symbiodinium type was the most important predictor of holobiont fitness, as measured by growth, survival, and thermo-tolerance; (2) growth and survival, but not heat-tolerance, were also affected by local environmental conditions; and (3) host population had little to no effect on holobiont fitness. Furthermore, coral-algal associations were established with symbiont types belonging to clades A, C and D, but three out of four symbiont types belonging to clade C failed to establish a symbiosis. Associations with clade A had the lowest fitness and were unstable in the field. Lastly, Symbiodinium types C1 and D were found to be relatively thermo-tolerant, with type D conferring the highest tolerance in A. millepora. These results highlight the complex interactions that occur between the coral host, the algal symbiont, and the environment to shape the fitness of the coral holobiont. An improved understanding of the factors affecting coral holobiont fitness will assist in predicting the responses of corals to global climate change.

Today’s carnivals

Friday Ark #253 is up on Modulator

The Open Laboratory 2009 – the submissions so far

OpenLab logo.jpg
Here are the submissions for OpenLab 2009 to date. As we have surpassed 230 entries, all of them, as well as the “submit” buttons and codes and the bookmarklet, are under the fold. You can buy the 2006, 2007 and 2008 editions at Lulu.com. Please use the submission form to add more of your and other people’s posts (remember that we are looking for original poems, art, cartoons and comics, as well as essays):

Continue reading

Clock Quotes

Studies indicate that the one quality all successful people have is persistence. They’re willing to spend more time accomplishing a task and to persevere in the face of many difficult odds. There’s a very positive relationship between people’s ability to accomplish any task and the time they’re willing to spend on it.
– Joyce Brothers

Sheril at Quail Ridge Books

Just came back from Raleigh, where Sheril gave a reading of her book Unscientific America in front of a nice-size crowd at Quail Ridge Books:
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Sheril did a great job and ably fielded the questions afterwards:
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ClockCast #1 (as MP3 this time)

Before the trip I did a little experiment and posted my first podcast, but as a WAV file which some people could not hear. Now, with a little help from my friends, I translated the file into the MP3 format so everyone can listen:

ClockCast1 – Bora ZivKovic

Today’s carnivals

The new Change Of Shift is up on Nurse in Australia
I and the Bird #105 is up on Picus Blog
July’s Edition of Skeptical Parents Crossing is up on On Becoming a Domestic and Laboratory Goddess

Clock Quotes

Each wrong act brings with it its own anesthetic, dulling the conscience and blinding it against further light, and sometimes for years.
– Rose Macaulay

Measuring scientific impact where it matters

Everyone and their grandmother knows that Impact Factor is a crude, unreliable and just wrong metric to use in evaluating individuals for career-making (or career-breaking) purposes. Yet, so many institutions (or rather, their bureaucrats – scientists would abandon it if their bosses would) cling to IF anyway. Probably because nobody has pushed for a good alternative yet. In the world of science publishing, when something needs to be done, usually people look at us (that is: PLoS) to make the first move. The beauty of being a path-blazer!
So, in today’s post ‘PLoS Journals – measuring impact where it matters’ on the PLoS Blog and everyONE blog, PLoS Director of Publishing Mark Patterson explains how we are moving away from the IF world (basically by ignoring it despite our journals’ potential for marketing via their high IFs, until the others catch up with us and start ignoring it as well) and focusing our energies in providing as many as possible article-level metrics instead. Mark wrote:

Article-level metrics and indicators will become powerful additions to the tools for the assessment and filtering of research outputs, and we look forward to working with the research community, publishers, funders and institutions to develop and hone these ideas. As for the impact factor, the 2008 numbers were released last month. But rather than updating the PLoS Journal sites with the new numbers, we’ve decided to stop promoting journal impact factors on our sites all together. It’s time to move on, and focus efforts on more sophisticated, flexible and meaningful measures.

In a series of recent posts, Peter Binfield, managing editor of PLoS ONE, explained the details of article-level metrics that are now employed and displayed on all seven PLoS journals. These are going to be added to and upgraded regularly, whenever we and the community feel there is a need to include another metric.
What we will not do is try to reduce these metrics to a single number ourselves. We want to make all the raw data available to the public to use as they see fit and we will all watch as the new standards emerge. We feel that different kinds of metrics are important to different people in different situations, and that these criteria will also change over time.
A paper of yours may be important for you to be seen by your peers (perhaps for career-related reasons which are nothing to frown about) in which case the citation numbers and download statistics may be much more important than the bookmarking statistics or the media/blog coverage or the on-article user activity (e.g., ratings, notes and comments). At least for now – this may change in the future. But another paper you may think would be particularly important to be seen by physicians around the world (or science teachers, or political journalists, etc.), in which case media/blog coverage numbers are much more important for you than citations – you are measuring your success by how broad an audience you could reach.
This will differ from paper to paper, from person to person, from scientific field to field, from institution to institution, and from country to country. I am sure there will be people out there who will try to put those numbers into various formulae and crunch the numbers and come up with some kind of “summary value” or “article-level impact value” which may or may not become a new standard in some places – time will tell.
But making all the numbers available is what is the most important for the scientific community as a whole. And this is what we will provide. And then the others will have to start providing them as well because authors will demand to see them. Perhaps this is a historic day in the world of science publishing….

PLoS ONE Academic Editor Interview – Peter Sommer

It was hectic during the travels, but I managed to interview Peter Sommer, PLoS ONE Section Editor for Virology anyway – in the age of the Internet, one can be connected everywhere. We posted the interview on everyONE blog yesterday.

New and Exciting in PLoS ONE

There are 9 new articles in PLoS ONE today. As always, you should rate the articles, post notes and comments and send trackbacks when you blog about the papers. You can now also easily place articles on various social services (CiteULike, Mendeley, Connotea, Stumbleupon, Facebook and Digg) with just one click. Here are my own picks for the week – you go and look for your own favourites:
Numbers in the Blind’s ‘Eye’:

Although lacking visual experience with numerosities, recent evidence shows that the blind perform similarly to sighted persons on numerical comparison or parity judgement tasks. In particular, on tasks presented in the auditory modality, the blind surprisingly show the same effect that appears in sighted persons, demonstrating that numbers are represented through a spatial code, i.e. the Spatial-Numerical Association of Response Codes (SNARC) effect. But, if this is the case, how is this numerical spatial representation processed in the brain of the blind? Here we report that, although blind and sighted people have similarly organized numerical representations, the attentional shifts generated by numbers have different electrophysiological correlates (sensorial N100 in the sighted and cognitive P300 in the blind). These results highlight possible differences in the use of spatial representations acquired through modalities other than vision in the blind population.

Adaptive Radiation in Mediterranean Cistus (Cistaceae):

Adaptive radiation in Mediterranean plants is poorly understood. The white-flowered Cistus lineage consists of 12 species primarily distributed in Mediterranean habitats and is herein subject to analysis. We conducted a “total evidence” analysis combining nuclear (ncpGS, ITS) and plastid (trnL-trnF, trnK-matK, trnS-trnG, rbcL) DNA sequences and using MP and BI to test the hypothesis of radiation as suggested by previous phylogenetic results. One of the five well-supported lineages of the Cistus-Halimium complex, the white-flowered Cistus lineage, comprises the higher number of species (12) and is monophyletic. Molecular dating estimates a Mid Pleistocene (1.04±0.25 Ma) diversification of the white-flowered lineage into two groups (C. clusii and C. salviifolius lineages), which display asymmetric characteristics: number of species (2 vs. 10), leaf morphologies (linear vs. linear to ovate), floral characteristics (small, three-sepalled vs. small to large, three- or five-sepalled flowers) and ecological attributes (low-land vs. low-land to mountain environments). A positive phenotype-environment correlation has been detected by historical reconstructions of morphological traits (leaf shape, leaf labdanum content and leaf pubescence). Ecological evidence indicates that modifications of leaf shape and size, coupled with differences in labdanum secretion and pubescence density, appear to be related to success of new species in different Mediterranean habitats. The observation that radiation in the Cistus salviifolius lineage has been accompanied by the emergence of divergent leaf traits (such as shape, pubescence and labdanum secretion) in different environments suggets that radiation in the group has been adaptive. Here we argued that the diverse ecological conditions of Mediterranean habitats played a key role in directing the evolution of alternative leaf strategies in this plant group. Key innovation of morphological characteristics is supported by our dated phylogeny, in which a Mediterranean climate establishment (2.8 Ma) predated the adaptive radiation of the white-flowered Cistus.

ScienceOnline’09 – Interview with Henry Gee

The series of interviews with some of the participants of the 2008 Science Blogging Conference was quite popular, so I decided to do the same thing again this year, posting interviews with some of the people who attended ScienceOnline’09 back in January.
Today, I asked Henry Gee, the senior editor at Nature and blogger at I, Editor and The End Of The Pier Show , to answer a few questions.
Welcome to A Blog Around The Clock.
Thank you. It’s nice to be here. Nice decor. Hessian up the walls. Very 1970s. I like the lava lamp. This sofa needs re-uphostering, though. The smell. I think something’s crawled down the back and died.
Would you, please, tell my readers a little bit more about yourself?
Delighted. Fire away.
Who are you?
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Well, there’s a thing. It rather depends whom you ask. To some, I am the Chosen One. To others, I’m the big fat bloke who’s always in the way when they want to take a photograph of Cromer Pier. To yet others, I’m the man at the back with the dog. I have lived in all places. I have lived in all ages. Destined to wander the face of the Earth forever, I am the Eternal Champion, the Wandering Jew, the Scapegoat, the Highlander, the Serpent with a Thousand Young, the Seven-Headed Messiah. I am Bakrug the Great Water-Lizard, Execrated of Sarnath. I am all these things, and yet, none of them, the One-In-All. If you ever find out who I am, you will tell me, won’t you? You might start by asking my wife. She might know. As for me, I haven’t the faintest idea.
What is your (scientific) background?
That mural at Yale by Rudolph Zallinger called ‘The Age of Reptiles‘. That should be enough scientific background for anybody.
What do you want to do/be when (and if ever) you grow up?
Hang on – did you notice a solidus in that question? Did you? Two questions in one – very sneaky. So what’s it to be – to do, or to be? Do? Be? Do be do be do? A lounge singer. Obviously. Mona Lisa. Buddy Can You Spare A Dime. All that old-school stuff. Ask me another.
What is your Real Life job?
[takes call on iPhone] Really? Is that so? Amazing. Sell the unicycle! Do it now! What were you thinking of? Sorry – my real life job? Ah yes. I work for a weekly magazine called Nature. You might have heard of it. It’s quite well known. My father was terribly disappointed when I joined. He thought it was a magazine for nudists and that I’d give him free copies. You should have seen his face fall when I told him it was mainly about the release of calcium from intracellular stores, all of them fully clothed.
But that was then, just after the relief of Mafeking. Poor old Mafeking, he’d been standing outside the Men’s Room for about a year and was hopping from foot to foot, fit to burst. Anyway, after he’d gone in I started as a junior reporter. After a while they threw me a few bones that nobody wanted, and for a few years I headed up the distant ancestor of Nature’s online news output, as well as writing Nature’s weekly press release, and handling all the manuscripts in organismal biology. I can’t believe I had the energy. These days it’s all I can do to handle just half our organismal biology submissions.
I also devised and edit Nature’s SF column, Futures. This has been going for ten years, and, like the proverbial Man from Devizes, has won an award. The European Science Fiction Society bestowed upon Nature the honour of being ‘Best SF Publisher’ of 2005. Nobody has yet come up to my face and said that everything Nature publishes is science fiction, but then, you can see my face from a long way off, and having seen it, you’d probably want to run as fast as possible in the opposite direction. If you were to ask me to summarize my job in a sentence, I’d say I was Nature’s Senior Editor in charge of Sex, Death and Aliens from Outer Space.
What aspect of science communication and/or particular use of the Web in science interests you the most?
Twitter. If you’d have asked me a year ago, I’d have said the Acheulean hand axe, but, you know, change is fast in the field of communications, Web-2.0 and whatnot. You have to keep up.
How does (if it does) blogging figure in your work?
I have a large figure, as some have been indelicate enough to notice, and blogging has a figure to match. It’s enormously important to me. As Winston Churchill wished to say in an address to the Free French: when he looked back at his career, he saw that it was divided into two parts. Being Churchill, he actually said this in French. His French was rudimentary to say the least, and what came out was ‘quand je regarde mon derriere je vois qu’il est divise en deux parts’. Which went down a storm. Blogging has transformed my life, so that I can see my past sundered, as it were, by a cleft of Churchillian magnitude, behind which – that is to say, beyond – is a past, as if another country, in which blogging didn’t happen. However, when I look back at Churchill’s bottom, I see that a lot of the writing I’ve always done, right back to student days, when I should have been sweeping up the Emerald Bar (don’t look for it, it isn’t there any more) was, how shall we say, bloggy. I think I was born to blog. Blogging is my middle name. Actually, it isn’t. My middle name, that is. My middle name is, in fact, ‘Ernest’. I am trying to convince my children that the ‘E’ stands for ‘Extraordinary’ but they remain unpersuaded.
When and how did you discover science blogs? What are some of your favourites? Have you discovered any new cool science blogs while at the Conference?
It all started when Matt Brown, the London Editor of Nature Network, wanted to start a blogging platform. I tried to tell him that the thing he was putting together in his garage from a jam jar, three egg boxes, a recycled melamine kitchen worktop and several lengths of damp bailer twine loosely knotted together would never achieve powered, controlled, heavier-than-air flight, but Matt – bless him – was like all pioneers, eyes to the stars, feet firmly planted in mid-air. I couldn’t bear to see the lad fail, so when he asked me to supply some hot air to give it lift, I could hardly refuse. I started blogging at Nature Network in February, 2007. The blog was called ‘The End Of The Pier Show’, but it’s now called I, Editor, and The End Of The Pier Show has moved to Blogger. I try to confine my Nature-Network blog to more-or-less scientific things, so I can devote my energies on ‘The End Of The Pier Show’ to right-wing politics and animal husbandry. This might seem a somewhat odd juxtaposition, but I can assure you that by the time you get to Cromer the distinction between them is moot.
Later in 2007 I went to SciFoo, and that was another turning point. I remember arriving at the hotel, putting down my girrafe, and, resolving to conquer my inherent shyness, decided I’d go up to the first person I met and introduce myself. Especially if I could cadge a cigarette. (I still smoked back then. These days I only smoke through my ears). So it was that I met Bora Zivkovic. Perhaps you’ve met him? He is one of the most prolific science bloggers in the iSphere. In fact, he told me that the only way his mother can reach him is by leaving comments on his blog, in Serbian. Small world, eh? In fact, it was through blogs that Bora visited Cromer, where I live, and that’s the next thing – it might seem odd to have a meatspace conference about blogging, but there are times when you have to meat (sorry, ‘meet’) people in real life.
The Science Online ’09 conference was great, as I met many US-based bloggers in person, for the first time, people like Abel Pharmboy, Scicurious, GrrlScientist, PalMD, the Flying Trilobite, Greg Laden, and many others. It was meeting these people in person that got me interested in their blogs, so the horizons of my own particular blogosphere have broaded immeasurably since the conference, in a way that they might not have done. But because blogging is such a personal activity, the lines between the real and the virtual can be blurred. For example, I ran into Eva Amsen (Expression Patterns, EasternBlot), and we were both convinced we’d met each other before. We had to sit down and think it through very carefully before we realized that we’d never actually met. It was weird.
I heard that your session (co-moderated with Pete Binfield) about ‘becoming a journal editor’ was an ur-example of what an Unconference session should look like.
OK, you tell me. What should an Unconference session look like? Joking apart, I’ve gradually moved to an unconference style of presentation in most everything I do. This is partly because I’m sartorially confused and just plain bone idle, and partly because I have a horror of gadgetry breaking down mid-lecture. But it’s mostly because, when I go out to labs and give seminars on what I get up to as a Nature editor, I’ve found that a rigid style of presentation makes peoples’ eyes glaze over. Honestly, whenever anyone these days gives a Powerpoint presentation it’s like Village of the Damned. Instead, I just say who I am (honestly, many people are amazed to find that Nature editors are even vaguely human) and then invite questions. Frequently asked questions include how do I go about choosing referees for papers; the criteria I use to consider papers for possible publication; the politics of supplementary information; the status of open peer-review and free-access publication in the world today; how much they need to bribe me to guarantee publication; and whether I spilled their pint. So, as you can imagine, the time flies by.
It was good to co-moderate the session with Pete Binfield of PLoS ONE, because we complemented each other – I am concerned with the nuts and bolts of handling manuscripts, whereas he is a managing editor, concerned with strategy and the business side. I don’t think people are always as aware as they might be of such distinctions. If you think of me as a Film Director, responsible for the editorial content, Pete would be the Film Producer, responsible for the financial and logistical backup.
I remember the session being packed out. I think some people had come expecting a fight. Before the session I definitely overheard people who might have been ticket touts, and gossip that included the phrase ‘wrestling in mud’. I’m sorry if people were disappointed.
How was it for you?
The Earth moved, baby. Pity I’ve given up smoking.
Is there anything that happened at this Conference – a session, something someone said or did or wrote – that will change the way you think about science communication, or something that you will take with you to your job, blog-reading and blog-writing?
nothing in particular – just a lot of memories and the warm fuzziness of good fellowship; of having finally found, after all these years, the promises of dawns that turn out to be false and a past littered with the corpses of failed relationships, a community of people in which I feel I belong. I should stop now, as I’m gonna cry.
It was so nice to see you again and thank you for the interview.
My pleasure. Do you know if the next bus goes to the station?
It does, but the train goes nowhere. I hope to see you again next January.
Do you now? I don’t remember agreeing to a second date. But you seem very nice, and I’m sure I’ll be free. What did you say your name was?
==========================
See the 2008 interview series and 2009 series for more.

New and Exciting in PLoS ONE

Our system was down fpr the past 17.5 hours so I could not post this last night, so here it is now. There are 22 new articles in PLoS ONE today. As always, you should rate the articles, post notes and comments and send trackbacks when you blog about the papers. You can now also easily place articles on various social services (CiteULike, Mendeley, Connotea, Stumbleupon, Facebook and Digg) with just one click. Here are my own picks for the week – you go and look for your own favourites:
Relativity Theory and Time Perception: Single or Multiple Clocks?:

Current theories of interval timing assume that humans and other animals time as if using a single, absolute stopwatch that can be stopped or reset on command. Here we evaluate the alternative view that psychological time is represented by multiple clocks, and that these clocks create separate temporal contexts by which duration is judged in a relative manner. Two predictions of the multiple-clock hypothesis were tested. First, that the multiple clocks can be manipulated (stopped and/or reset) independently. Second, that an event of a given physical duration would be perceived as having different durations in different temporal contexts, i.e., would be judged differently by each clock. Rats were trained to time three durations (e.g., 10, 30, and 90 s). When timing was interrupted by an unexpected gap in the signal, rats reset the clock used to time the “short” duration, stopped the “medium” duration clock, and continued to run the “long” duration clock. When the duration of the gap was manipulated, the rats reset these clocks in a hierarchical order, first the “short”, then the “medium”, and finally the “long” clock. Quantitative modeling assuming re-allocation of cognitive resources in proportion to the relative duration of the gap to the multiple, simultaneously timed event durations was used to account for the results. These results indicate that the three event durations were effectively timed by separate clocks operated independently, and that the same gap duration was judged relative to these three temporal contexts. Results suggest that the brain processes the duration of an event in a manner similar to Einstein’s special relativity theory: A given time interval is registered differently by independent clocks dependent upon the context.

Mobile Phone Based Clinical Microscopy for Global Health Applications:

Light microscopy provides a simple, cost-effective, and vital method for the diagnosis and screening of hematologic and infectious diseases. In many regions of the world, however, the required equipment is either unavailable or insufficiently portable, and operators may not possess adequate training to make full use of the images obtained. Counterintuitively, these same regions are often well served by mobile phone networks, suggesting the possibility of leveraging portable, camera-enabled mobile phones for diagnostic imaging and telemedicine. Toward this end we have built a mobile phone-mounted light microscope and demonstrated its potential for clinical use by imaging P. falciparum-infected and sickle red blood cells in brightfield and M. tuberculosis-infected sputum samples in fluorescence with LED excitation. In all cases resolution exceeded that necessary to detect blood cell and microorganism morphology, and with the tuberculosis samples we took further advantage of the digitized images to demonstrate automated bacillus counting via image analysis software. We expect such a telemedicine system for global healthcare via mobile phone – offering inexpensive brightfield and fluorescence microscopy integrated with automated image analysis – to provide an important tool for disease diagnosis and screening, particularly in the developing world and rural areas where laboratory facilities are scarce but mobile phone infrastructure is extensive.

Climatic Changes Lead to Declining Winter Chill for Fruit and Nut Trees in California during 1950-2099:

Winter chill is one of the defining characteristics of a location’s suitability for the production of many tree crops. We mapped and investigated observed historic and projected future changes in winter chill in California, quantified with two different chilling models (Chilling Hours, Dynamic Model). Based on hourly and daily temperature records, winter chill was modeled for two past temperature scenarios (1950 and 2000), and 18 future scenarios (average conditions during 2041-2060 and 2080-2099 under each of the B1, A1B and A2 IPCC greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, for the CSIRO-MK3, HadCM3 and MIROC climate models). For each scenario, 100 replications of the yearly temperature record were produced, using a stochastic weather generator. We then introduced and mapped a novel climatic statistic, “safe winter chill”, the 10% quantile of the resulting chilling distributions. This metric can be interpreted as the amount of chilling that growers can safely expect under each scenario. Winter chill declined substantially for all emissions scenarios, with the area of safe winter chill for many tree species or cultivars decreasing 50-75% by mid-21st century, and 90-100% by late century. Both chilling models consistently projected climatic conditions by the middle to end of the 21st century that will no longer support some of the main tree crops currently grown in California, with the Chilling Hours Model projecting greater changes than the Dynamic Model. The tree crop industry in California will likely need to develop agricultural adaptation measures (e.g. low-chill varieties and dormancy-breaking chemicals) to cope with these projected changes. For some crops, production might no longer be possible.

Archaeogenetic Evidence of Ancient Nubian Barley Evolution from Six to Two-Row Indicates Local Adaptation:

Archaeobotanical samples of barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) found at Qasr Ibrim display a two-row phenotype that is unique to the region of archaeological sites upriver of the first cataract of the Nile, characterised by the development of distinctive lateral bracts. The phenotype occurs throughout all strata at Qasr Ibrim, which range in age from 3000 to a few hundred years. We extracted ancient DNA from barley samples from the entire range of occupancy of the site, and studied the Vrs1 gene responsible for row number in extant barley. Surprisingly, we found a discord between the genotype and phenotype in all samples; all the barley had a genotype consistent with the six-row condition. These results indicate a six-row ancestry for the Qasr Ibrim barley, followed by a reassertion of the two-row condition. Modelling demonstrates that this sequence of evolutionary events requires a strong selection pressure. The two-row phenotype at Qasr Ibrim is caused by a different mechanism to that in extant barley. The strength of selection required for this mechanism to prevail indicates that the barley became locally adapted in the region in response to a local selection pressure. The consistency of the genotype/phenotype discord over time supports a scenario of adoption of this barley type by successive cultures, rather than the importation of new barley varieties associated with individual cultures.

Beyond Marine Reserves: Exploring the Approach of Selecting Areas where Fishing Is Permitted, Rather than Prohibited:

Marine populations have been declining at a worrying rate, due in large part to fishing pressures. The challenge is to secure a future for marine life while minimizing impacts on fishers and fishing communities. Rather than selecting areas where fishing is banned – as is usually the case with spatial management – we assess the concept of designating areas where fishing is permitted. We use spatial catch statistics for thirteen commercial fisheries on Canada’s west coast to determine the minimum area that would be needed to maintain a pre-ascribed target percentage of current catches. We found that small reductions in fisheries yields, if strategically allocated, could result in large unfished areas that are representative of biophysical regions and habitat types, and have the potential to achieve remarkable conservation gains. Our approach of selecting fishing areas instead of reserves could help redirect debate about the relative values that society places on conservation and extraction, in a framework that could gain much by losing little. Our ideas are intended to promote discussions about the current status quo in fisheries management, rather than providing a definitive solution.

Understanding Oceanic Migrations with Intrinsic Biogeochemical Markers:

Migratory marine vertebrates move annually across remote oceanic water masses crossing international borders. Many anthropogenic threats such as overfishing, bycatch, pollution or global warming put millions of marine migrants at risk especially during their long-distance movements. Therefore, precise knowledge about these migratory movements to understand where and when these animals are more exposed to human impacts is vital for addressing marine conservation issues. Because electronic tracking devices suffer from several constraints, mainly logistical and financial, there is emerging interest in finding appropriate intrinsic markers, such as the chemical composition of inert tissues, to study long-distance migrations and identify wintering sites. Here, using tracked pelagic seabirds and some of their own feathers which were known to be grown at different places and times within the annual cycle, we proved the value of biogeochemical analyses of inert tissue as tracers of marine movements and habitat use. Analyses of feathers grown in summer showed that both stable isotope signatures and element concentrations can signal the origin of breeding birds feeding in distinct water masses. However, only stable isotopes signalled water masses used during winter because elements mainly accumulated during the long breeding period are incorporated into feathers grown in both summer and winter. Our findings shed new light on the simple and effective assignment of marine organisms to distinct oceanic areas, providing new opportunities to study unknown migration patterns of secretive species, including in relation to human-induced mortality on specific populations in the marine environment.

Local Stressors Reduce Coral Resilience to Bleaching:

Coral bleaching, during which corals lose their symbiotic dinoflagellates, typically corresponds with periods of intense heat stress, and appears to be increasing in frequency and geographic extent as the climate warms. A fundamental question in coral reef ecology is whether chronic local stress reduces coral resistance and resilience from episodic stress such as bleaching, or alternatively promotes acclimatization, potentially increasing resistance and resilience. Here we show that following a major bleaching event, Montastraea faveolata coral growth rates at sites with higher local anthropogenic stressors remained suppressed for at least 8 years, while coral growth rates at sites with lower stress recovered in 2-3 years. Instead of promoting acclimatization, our data indicate that background stress reduces coral fitness and resilience to episodic events. We also suggest that reducing chronic stress through local coral reef management efforts may increase coral resilience to global climate change.

Hypocretin-2 Saporin Lesions of the Ventrolateral Periaquaductal Gray (vlPAG) Increase REM Sleep in Hypocretin Knockout Mice:

Ten years ago the sleep disorder narcolepsy was linked to the neuropeptide hypocretin (HCRT), also known as orexin. This disorder is characterized by excessive day time sleepiness, inappropriate triggering of rapid-eye movement (REM) sleep and cataplexy, which is a sudden loss of muscle tone during waking. It is still not known how HCRT regulates REM sleep or muscle tone since HCRT neurons are localized only in the lateral hypothalamus while REM sleep and muscle atonia are generated from the brainstem. To identify a potential neuronal circuit, the neurotoxin hypocretin-2-saporin (HCRT2-SAP) was used to lesion neurons in the ventral lateral periaquaductal gray (vlPAG). The first experiment utilized hypocretin knock-out (HCRT-ko) mice with the expectation that deletion of both HCRT and its target neurons would exacerbate narcoleptic symptoms. Indeed, HCRT-ko mice (n = 8) given the neurotoxin HCRT2-SAP (16.5 ng/23nl/sec each side) in the vlPAG had levels of REM sleep and sleep fragmentation that were considerably higher compared to HCRT-ko given saline (+39%; n = 7) or wildtype mice (+177%; n = 9). However, cataplexy attacks did not increase, nor were levels of wake or non-REM sleep changed. Experiment 2 determined the effects in mice where HCRT was present but the downstream target neurons in the vlPAG were deleted by the neurotoxin. This experiment utilized an FVB-transgenic strain of mice where eGFP identifies GABA neurons. We verified this and also determined that eGFP neurons were immunopositive for the HCRT-2 receptor. vlPAG lesions in these mice increased REM sleep (+79% versus saline controls) and it was significantly correlated (r = 0.89) with loss of eGFP neurons. These results identify the vlPAG as one site that loses its inhibitory control over REM sleep, but does not cause cataplexy, as a result of hypocretin deficiency.

Susceptibility to Infection and Immune Response in Insular and Continental Populations of Egyptian Vulture: Implications for Conservation:

A generalized decline in populations of Old World avian scavengers is occurring on a global scale. The main cause of the observed crisis in continental populations of these birds should be looked for in the interaction between two factors – changes in livestock management, including the increased use of pharmaceutical products, and disease. Insular vertebrates seem to be especially susceptible to diseases induced by the arrival of exotic pathogens, a process often favored by human activities, and sedentary and highly dense insular scavengers populations may be thus especially exposed to infection by such pathogens. Here, we compare pathogen prevalence and immune response in insular and continental populations of the globally endangered Egyptian vulture under similar livestock management scenarios, but with different ecological and evolutionary perspectives. Adult, immature, and fledgling vultures from the Canary Islands and the Iberian Peninsula were sampled to determine a) the prevalence of seven pathogen taxa and b) their immunocompetence, as measured by monitoring techniques (white blood cells counts and immunoglobulins). In the Canarian population, pathogen prevalence was higher and, in addition, an association among pathogens was apparent, contrary to the situation detected in continental populations. Despite that, insular fledglings showed lower leukocyte profiles than continental birds and Canarian fledglings infected by Chlamydophila psittaci showed poorer cellular immune response. A combination of environmental and ecological factors may contribute to explain the high susceptibility to infection found in insular vultures. The scenario described here may be similar in other insular systems where populations of carrion-eaters are in strong decline and are seriously threatened. Higher susceptibility to infection may be a further factor contributing decisively to the extinction of island scavengers in the present context of global change and increasing numbers of emerging infectious diseases.

Quality of Pharmaceutical Advertisements in Medical Journals: A Systematic Review:

Journal advertising is one of the main sources of medicines information to doctors. Despite the availability of regulations and controls of drug promotion worldwide, information on medicines provided in journal advertising has been criticized in several studies for being of poor quality. However, no attempt has been made to systematically summarise this body of research. We designed this systematic review to assess all studies that have examined the quality of pharmaceutical advertisements for prescription products in medical and pharmacy journals. Studies were identified via searching electronic databases, web library, search engine and reviewing citations (1950 – February 2006). Only articles published in English and examined the quality of information included in pharmaceutical advertisements for prescription products in medical or pharmacy journals were included. For each eligible article, a researcher independently extracted the data on the study methodology and outcomes. The data were then reviewed by a second researcher. Any disagreements were resolved by consensus. The data were analysed descriptively. The final analysis included 24 articles. The studies reviewed advertisements from 26 countries. The number of journals surveyed in each study ranged from four to 24 journals. Several outcome measures were examined including references and claims provided in advertisements, availability of product information, adherence to codes or guidelines and presentation of risk results. The majority of studies employed a convenience-sampling method. Brand name, generic name and indications were usually provided. Journal articles were commonly cited to support pharmaceutical claims. Less than 67% of the claims were supported by a systematic review, a meta-analysis or a randomised control trial. Studies that assessed misleading claims had at least one advertisement with a misleading claim. Two studies found that less than 28% of claims were unambiguous clinical claims. Most advertisements with quantitative information provided risk results as relative risk reduction. Studies were conducted in 26 countries only and then the generalizability of the results is limited. Evidence from this review indicates that low quality of journal advertising is a global issue. As information provided in journal advertising has the potential to change doctors’ prescribing behaviour, ongoing efforts to increase education about drug promotion are crucial. The results from our review suggest the need for a global pro-active and effective regulatory system to ensure that information provided in medical journal advertising is supporting the quality use of medicines.